In April, Pascal Rupprecht triumphed in a first-round Players Championship match with an 81.89 average, overcoming Martijn Dragt 6-5 who had a 94.64 average. This marked the biggest averages deficit for a winner of a Players Championship match in 2024.
“There have been 505 such matches this year in which the leader in points scored per dart thrown was not the winner of the match – nearly 25% of the total,” noted a darts analyst.
Losing a leg can actually be advantageous to one’s averages in darts, especially at the highest levels. By not attempting finishing doubles, a player’s three-dart average could heavily rely on treble 19s and 20s.
At the most extreme end, it is conceivable for a player averaging 158.63 to lose a best-of-11 match to a player averaging 77.08. This situation could result in a player with a higher average being whitewashed 6-0.
Alternative stats in darts aim to consider other aspects of a player’s performance, such as checkout percentage and last-dart-at-double accuracy. These stats help provide a more comprehensive view of a player’s abilities beyond just the standard three-dart average.
The concept of REAL averages (Remaining-score Estimate of Average Leg-lengths) delves deeper into a player’s performance by applying PDC-average probabilities to estimate how many additional darts a player would have needed to finish a lost leg.
“After thousands of simulations, we determine that a PDC player will need – on average – 3.61 additional darts to finish from a score of 41,” explained a statistician.
REAL averages impose penalties on players who do not emerge victoriously in their legs. The minimum number of average additional darts needed to check out from the easiest finish, 32, is 2.61, which could drastically lower a player’s average.
A total of 238 Players Championship matches (around 11%) witnessed the player with the higher REAL average not winning the match, showcasing a significant improvement over traditional averages in predicting match outcomes.
The advantage of the REAL average lies in its alignment with leg lengths, providing a more accurate representation of a player’s performance on the day. A player with a REAL average of 100.20 is essentially averaging a 15-darter, while an 83.50 average translates to an 18-darter.
Overall, REAL averages provide a more nuanced perspective on a player’s performance, accounting for various factors that contribute to their success or failure in a match.
